A new survey of foreign policy experts has found that 46% believe Russia will fail or break apart by 2033.
The war in Ukraine highlights the possibility of “internal problems” in Russia, said one author.
The majority of experts surveyed also believe that China will invade Taiwan within 10 years.
Nearly half of top foreign policy experts believe Russia will become a failed state or break up by 2033, according to a new survey by think tank Atlantic Council.
The Financial Times was first to report on the findings, which appear to suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine could have costly political consequences at home.
The survey found that 46% of 167 experts surveyed, from academia, nonprofits, government and consulting, anticipate Russia’s collapse within the next decade.
The survey found that 40% of respondents expected Russia to break up internally in the next 10 years due to “revolution, civil war, political disintegration” or some other reason.
Just over a fifth (21%) saw Russia as the country most likely to become a failed state in the next decade, more than double the second highest choice: Afghanistan.
“Ukraine clearly highlights the possibility of internal problems for Russia and the possibility that the war itself will have boomerang effects not only for its leaders but for the country as a whole,” said Peter Engelke, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s foresight. Financial Times.
Western officials believe Putin has been weakened by his decision to invade Ukraine, with the Pentagon calling the war a “massive strategic failure”.
Russia has exhausted its annual budget, been hit with sanctions and suffered unexpected battlefield casualties over the past 10 months.
A British government source said Russia could take up to 30 years to rebuild its economic and military might, according to The Times of London.
The experts interviewed by the Atlantic Council also anticipate major developments elsewhere in the world.
The survey found that 70% of respondents agreed with a statement that China could invade Taiwan within the next decade, echoing a senior US admiral’s warning in March 2021 that a Chinese military action could take place by 2027.
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